A unique contribution of this research is the placement of an app within a social ecosystem. The researchers analyzed a collection of apps on Facebook login over the period from January 2009 through June 2014. The researchers considered both retention, “a user’s tendency to return to the app,” as well as popularity and sociality. This well-designed and significant ten-page study is worthwhile reading for designers, marketers, and managers.

The authors carefully define the parameters of their research and how they collected their data. Popularity “is the probability that an individual selected uniformly at random from Facebook’s population is a user of the app.” Sociality “is the probability that a member of Facebook is a user of the app given that [he or she has] at least one friend using the app.” The results are carefully discussed and graphed.

The best predicted performance results are the median number of users in months eight and nine of the observation period. This indicates stability, a positive predictor. Having users who are also highly active on Facebook is a positive predictor. Another important feature is sociality, the number of friends who used the app. These conclusions are backed by rigorous analysis, such as the use of a SIRS model and pairwise comparison models.

The authors indicate that future research might focus on distinguishing “organic growth and advertising-driven growth.” There are also unresolved forecasting parameters worthy of study. The authors include a number of footnoted references for additional study. Their research is a worthy contribution to understanding the life cycle of an app.