Network computers, thin clients, company positions, and a forecast make up this paper, written in December 1996, which attempts to separate hype from fact about network computers. Supporting that attempt are one figure charting task performance against task importance for intranet success; one table listing ten intranet administration tasks; two sidebars describing definitions of the NC (which can stand for network computer or network computing); and ten references, all to URLs.

The author argues that the NC model is most like the mainframe–dumb terminal model, but also somewhat like the Unix X-terms model, with both the data and the application software residing on a central server. He argues that making the NCs minimal machines gains less in total cost of ownership than is lost from restricted application selection, application performance slowdown, increased server overhead, consequences of server and network outages, and the need to use higher-capacity networks. In his view, the NC therefore has almost no future on the Internet, and only a modest niche future when used on an intranet for noncritical applications.

In further support of his position, the author notes the wide variation in what various sources regard as NCs and NC architectures. For instance, Microsoft can finesse the issue by making networking capability integral to all of its operating systems. Sun can build up Java so that the differences in NCs appear as performance speed differences, but it will probably continue to have difficulty in getting Java into mission-critical systems. Netscape’s ONE might get enough support to be an influence, and companies such as IBM, Apple, and Monorail might field hardware or software attractive enough to claim a role in network computing.

As a participant in and observer of the field, I believe Vaughan-Nichols is right in his “been there, done that” dismissal of the NC. The situation involving the introduction of Microsoft Windows 98 can be read as support for his position, for example. Yet he says nothing about the growing capability of hand-held computers and wireless connections. If the author had been writing now, I expect he would have broadened his view and redirected his forecast somewhat.