No matter how short your shortlist of management books to read this year is, this ought to be on that list. This is a book in the tradition of Toffler’s Future shock [1] and Naisbitt’s Megatrends [2]. The book describes, via many examples and anecdotes, the author’s experiences consulting for corporations and government agencies on technology and systems, and various conclusions drawn from them. The conclusions he draws all concern how he views the future to likely surprise us mortals. I do not sufficiently recall Toffler, nor do I have it, but Naisbitt is still quite handy. Canton’s book is as accessible to the general reader, and, from this vantage, is as thought provoking. Looking back on Megatrends, it is instructive and entertaining to see how accurate Naisbitt was. While no one can say Canton’s predictions will be proven accurate, I opine that the majority of them sound right, and they are all worth reading.

The book briefly describes several technology trends, with information technologies as the enabling fulcrum. Canton examines the possible future along various paths, namely, energy, innovations, workplace, medicine, climate, economics, and science: he calls them “ten trends of the extreme future.” An interesting aside concerning the name is that he believes that the future, even in relatively near terms, will be radically different from what may appear at first glance. The majority of the book is devoted to showing what this may be. The general issues with each technology and trend, and the resulting issues and problems that may occur, are described in detail, and with what he calls “future maps” to help visualize how various actors interact. This is very well done.

The book is obviously well written—so well written that one of my first reactions when I began reading it was to check if a soft cover version is available (not yet, but it is scheduled) to facilitate dissemination. The book is so well written that one can disagree, even vehemently, and still enjoy both the good read offered and the thought-provoking ways in which the material is presented.

Unfortunately, Canton did not include existing empirical evidence or references, which would have greatly strengthened his claims. No graphs or charts are exhibited to illustrate what may occur, or reasons why his predictions seem so obvious to him. Another unfortunate tendency Canton displays is extreme optimism, occasionally at an expense of a reality check, and even to the point of wry chuckles. He seems to forget, for example, that the same globalization-enabling technology allowing his marvelous predictions also allows terrorists and criminals to join forces against larger adversaries with relative ease, and to carry out small, inexpensive actions (like sabotaging an oil pipeline) that generate huge returns on investment. This is sometimes called open-source warfare, and it allows rapid adaptation to changes in the enemy’s tactics. The author’s frequently repeated predictions of universal peace and democracy rub against some very large world populations that genuinely do not wish for them, as anathematic as this may sound to some people’s optimism.

On a personal note, I found the author’s chapter on energy to be one of the most significant. It is both very well done, and illustrative of many ramifications of how future trends may affect us all, in ways both conceptually mind opening and intellectually stimulating, while not belittling the vast risks involved. He revives the quote of Ahmad Zaki Yemeni, that “the stone age did not end for lack of stone, and the oil age will end long before the world runs out of oil.” And this is just the way the chapter begins. Canton predicts “a massive global power shift is coming based on energy access.” This, and its ramifications, is very worth thinking about. We are not discussing oil; we are discussing the ability of industrial and post-industrial societies to continue to function. Computers are not happy without electricity.

While my personal fancy was chiefly with the chapter on energy, the chapter on what the author calls “Weird Science” is just as well done and thought provoking. Here, my favorite quote would be: “When computers reach the next level of performance we will be measuring speed, power, and time in new, radical, and multiple dimensions that defy the relatively primitive logic of today.” Think about that: a new way to measure time that is the result of computing power. Now, that is thought provoking.

The book is not a textbook, and should not be used as such; its lack of empirics ensures that. It is a book for managers who need to think ahead and think out of the box. I would add, however, that the book’s value may be limited by time. It is certainly relevant for the next year or two. No one can be certain about how much value it will have after that.