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Nations at risk: the impact of the computer revolution
Yourdon E., Yourdon Press, Upper Saddle River, NJ, 1986. Type: Book (9789780917072048)
Date Reviewed: Aug 1 1987

This is a thought-provoking book, but I find myself disagreeing, vehemently at times, with the author’s conclusions and interpretations of the information he presents.

For example, in the Introduction on p. 5, he states, “Every child born in 1980 will have written 10,000 lines of computer code by the time he or she graduates from high school.” On p. 20, we learn that this piece of information is quoted from [1]. I have not looked up the original, but the claim is certainly not supported in the present text. I cannot accept this claim as it stands. As a programmer, I hope it is false] I might accept the statement if he had stated that children would get the use from a computer that would require 10,000 lines of code in today’s languages.

Also in the Introduction, on p. 6, the claim is made that “By the end of the 1990’s, banks as we now know them will disappear: money will be recognized as information in motion [author’s emphasis], and its movement will be managed by its owners rather than banks.”

This theme is expanded on p. 99. However, on p. 104 the following claim is made: “But the long-term economics (of home banking) surely favor the banks.” From this, are we to conclude that banks will disappear?

I have to agree with the second conclusion. I also agree that the banking industry will be very different from what we know now; but I am convinced that it will evolve into wherever it is going. We will not wake up one morning and find that banks as we now know them have disappeared. (Perhaps my view is more insidious than Yourdon’s.)

On p. 127, it is stated:

Though industrial robots are indeed an important application of computers, my discussion of them in this book will be relatively brief. My primary reason for this is . . . that they have already become irrelevant. As we will see . . . a growing segment of the American economy is concerned not with the production of things, but with the production of information.

I have no quarrel with the second part of this quote. However, a company whose business is producing things will go out of business just as surely if the quality of their things drops as if they lose track of the information about the business. People buy things for the thing. The information only helps the company compete with other producers of similar things.

On p. 129, the following statement is quoted from Arthur Harkins in [1]: “By the year 2000, we will be using robots as sex partners.” I’m not sure how this “Fact?” puts “Nations at Risk” unless through underpopulation.

Chapter 14 is titled Privacy and Computers. The major theme is that as the various data that organizations keep on people are put together, unexpected and damaging inferences will be able to be made. This needs to be contrasted with Chapter 18, The Database Dilemma. In the latter chapter, businesses are berated for not bringing or being able to bring together the various data files they have.

I guess two-edged swords are better: they hack both ways] Of course, in a real sense the author is correct on both counts. I object to the alarmist language about both problems. I have to believe that, as we are able to integrate the data as Yourdon wants in Chapter 18, we as a society will learn to deal with the problems he describes in Chapter 16. I agree with the author’s facts, but I disagree with his alarmist interpretations of them.

As a parting dig, on p. 296, the well-known computer translation error of “The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak” is mentioned. Yourdon, however, gives credit for the original quote to Shakespeare]

If the author’s goal was to write a provocative book, he succeeded. I am provoked. As I calm down, I realize that I want to use the book in a senior seminar on Computers in Society that I expect to conduct in the fall. The book should provide a well-researched basis for discussion.

I can’t agree with many of the author’s inferences, although I accept most of his facts. I also have to agree with most of his conclusions, but not in the alarmist way they are stated.

Reviewer:  Anthony J. Schaeffer Review #: CR111012
1) Rochester, J. B.; and Gantz, J.The naked computer, William Morrow and Co., New York, 1983.
1) The National Commission on Excellence in EducationA nation at risk. The imperative for education reform, The US Government Printing Office, The National Commission on Excellence in Education, April 1983.
2) Toffler, A.The third wave, William Morrow & Co., New York, 1980.
3) Naisbitt, J.Megatrends, Warner Books, New York, 1983.
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