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Bioterrorism : mathematical modeling applications in homeland security
Banks T., Castillo-Chavez C., Society for Industrial & Applied Mathematics, 2003. 240 pp. Type: Book (9780898715491)
Date Reviewed: Jul 21 2004

I accepted this review assignment in the anticipation of gaining a better understanding of the bioterrorism threat. It was, however, with some trepidation that I began reading the book, not because of its subject, but rather because of its style and content.

Replete with complex formulas and scientific theories, the book is aimed squarely at a mathematical and/or scientific audience. While I have a reasonable understanding of mathematics and theoretical science, this was way out of my league. Nevertheless, I have attempted to provide a layman’s perspective, and hopefully will pique the curiosity of those in the field enough to encourage them to read the book themselves.

With the anthrax attacks in the United States in 2001, and the recent severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and avian flu epidemics, concerns about the threat of bioterrorism (biological attack by terrorists) have grown worldwide. This book reports on the efforts of experts in various disciplines who are researching models in the defense against bioterrorist attacks.

Chapter 1 sets the overall theme and context for much of the book. It explores the challenges mathematical scientists face in their research into bioterrorism, such as the reasoning required to investigate highly complex biological systems, and their components and interactions, the problems and restrictions of field testing or experimentation, and how mathematical models have become important tools.

The author discusses the background and application of “mathematical and computational epidemiology” in biological research, noting the need for powerful computational methods in dealing with such complex systems, and the large data sets involved.

Recognizing the dynamic nature of biological systems, and the complex and diverse models required, the author calls for greater exposure and participation from mathematical scientists in developing and building on research into bioterrorism. In particular, the author examines the fields of discrete mathematics and theoretical computer science, and the role they could provide in bioterrorism research, noting that such methods and tools are “not well known among those working on public health problems.” Areas of bioterrorism research these could assist in include: surveillance and early detection; analysis, representation, and security of data; social network modeling; the evolution of viruses and other pathogens; group testing; and decision making and policy analysis.

Chapter 2 examines various models for the analysis of worst-case scenarios of a biological attack (epidemic). In particular, the authors address the social network involved, and the hypothesis that random mixing corresponds to a worst-case result.

Chapter 3 discusses detecting chemical and biological substances before they are released on a large scale. Here, the authors examine continuous flow and cell-based sensors, and the performance enhancements they might provide. Chapter 4 examines health surveillance systems, and considers additional aspects of the data obtained in relation to distance and location.

Chapter 5 provides an in-depth look at foot and mouth disease, and considers a number of mathematical models that may improve the monitoring and detection of this disease. Chapter 6 discusses a number of methods for modeling and system integration (electromagnetic imaging) techniques where uncertainty exists (through hidden substances and agents), arguing that new tools are needed.

Chapter 7 takes a different approach, examining the groups that may use bioterrorism, and discussing models that examine the forces and structures that facilitate extreme behaviors in societies.

Chapter 8 examines the threat from a smallpox attack on a city’s transport system, such as a subway or airport. Chapter 9 examines models for determining the migration and infection rates of an epidemic spread, both sedentary and migratory. Chapter 10 models the spread of influenza among cities.

Overall, this book is a very detailed scientific examination of bioterrorism, providing a number of models that could assist researchers in creating a defense against such a threat. Comprehensive references for each chapter, and an index, are also provided. If you are involved in mathematical or scientific research in the bioterrorism field, you will likely find this book inspiring, as well as challenging to your views on current thinking.

Reviewer:  V. Stagg Review #: CR129904 (0501-0023)
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Security and Protection (K.6.5 )
 
 
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